Nextbigfuture is a top 1% predictor at the public prediction site Metaculus. My overall rank is 45 out of over 5000 forecasters and ranked 31st based on predictions resolved in the past 12 months. Only 8 predictions out of 256 were wrong for predictions resolved in 2023.
248 correct out of 256 predictions resolved in 2023 is a 96.9% correct prediction rate.
435 correct out of 455 predictions resolved since Jan 1 2022 is a 95.6% correct prediction rate.
A Brier score above 0.25 is an incorrect prediction. Lower brier scores are better.
Nextbigfuture’s overall brier score is 0.071. The Metaculus site brier score is 0.080.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Congratulations Brian ! There has been little news regarding progress of quantum computers partly due to difficulties with error correction as the number of q bits increases. Do you think we are in the “quantum winter” and what is your prediction as to when we will reach the real quantum supremacy?
Congrats Brian on the accuracy of your predictions…would you care to give odds on David Sinclair’s “Ave Reversal Pill Coming Soon?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNC7rt71TYo&t=4s
“Dr. David Sinclair’s groundbreaking research indicates a pill capable of reversing aging at a cellular level is possible and that even a high school student could make it in their kitchen.”
“Rejuvenating Cells Using A New Small Molecule Approach
Small molecule alternative to Yamanaka factors may be a safer way to partially reprogram aged cells.”
https://www.lifespan.io/news/david-sinclair-has-rejuvenated-cells-using-small-molecules/
I believe that in the posted YouTube video he (Sinclair) thinks the pill could be ready for prime time (people) in a decade give or take.
I do not think the Sinclair pill will reverse aging to a major level. It could have some beneficial health effects. I think George Church’s approach to modify thousands of genes is what will be needed. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/09/starting-human-clinical-trials-for-combo-antiaging-genome-engineering.html
Sinclair pill that has three Yamanaka factor genes is not enough.
Will Sinclair have a drug approved related to this work and used by humans within 15 years, somewhere in the world, 70% likely. But I would say 95% that it will not be the leading treatment for antiaging (either in effectiveness or popularity).
Predict the winning power ball numbers and then we’ll talk.
Hmm… Love your site Brian, but at least when it comes to Tesla, you are grossly over optimistic. You routinely predict growth in car production that is simply unrealistic and has been proven so on numerous occasions. Now you Jane also added that the Tesla bot will be mass produced in 2024. I want you to be right, but I think you are over optimistic again…
It is not as easy to check the quality of your other predictions…
Well done, sir.
thanks
What predictions did you make again that all came trough, maybe a little extra with the article about this? Congrats anyway!