The China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute (CREEI) reports that by the end of 2024, China is set to add 190GW of solar capacity and 70GW of wind. The NEA reports China added 217GW of solar power and 76GW of wind power in 2023 – to reach a total capacity of 1,050GW.
China needs 15 Tesla Megapack factories (150,000 per year) worth of fixed storage every year for the new wind and solar energy. This will increase as China accelerates solar and wind installation to meet AI data center demand.
By the end of 2024, China’s installed solar and wind capacity will be 1,310GW.
In 2023, China’s solar power generation reached 584 terawatt hours (TWh). China had 392 GW of installed solar at the end of 2022. In 2022, the US had 110 Gigawatts of installed solar and it generated 204 TWh. In 2023, China contributed almost 60% of additional global energy capacity (an added 301GW), making it both the largest greenhouse gas emitter and green energy producer.
By May 2024, China had installed 690GW of solar capacity and 460GW of wind, which made up 38% of its power generation capacity.
China is averaging about 1 MWh/year (2.8kWh/day) per kilowatt of installed solar. The US is getting 1.85 MWh/year (4.8 kWh/day) per kilowatt of installed solar.
It is a common mistake for people to assume that the kilowatts of installed energy are all equal. US nuclear power can get 8 MWh/year (22 kWh/day) per installed kilowatt. Other countries get 6-7 MWh/year per installed kilowatt of nuclear. Coal power can get about 4 MWh/year per kilowatt of installed power. Hydro can get about 3 MWh/year per kilowatt of installed power. There is also a lot of variability by country, locations and projects even for the same energy type. At the end of 2023, China had 53 Gigawatts of nuclear power installed and this generated 440 TWh. 600 GW of solar generated 584 TWH of power which was 33% more than 53 gigawatts of nuclear making 440 TWh.
The fast build out of solar power in China could take time to fully connect to the grid. China had much more installed solar power in 2017 at 130 GW than the US in 2022 but it took until 2019 for China to generate more electricity than the US using 110 GW.
Mongolia is a good location for solar power generation, with 270–300 sunny days per year. This is equivalent to 2,250–3,300 hours of sunshine. Mongolia has cold winters with snow and ice. The number of sunny days should not be the problem. Too much heat can also be bad for solar panels, reducing their efficiency by 10%-25%. China’s solar power only generates about 55-65% of the electricity for the same installed capacity as the USA. The fast buildout could have a lag factor before everything is connected. The China solar locations are probably 20-40% worse than the best places in the USA. China has dust and air pollution that is reducing the effectiveness of the solar power. China is choosing to mass install in north and northwest where the Gobi desert is located. China is also building solar in many other locations by the super-scale projects are in the Gobi desert.
China had 3.56x as much installed solar capacity but just over 2X in electrical generation.
The Kubuqi Base Project is a 16-gigawat (GW) solar, wind, and coal project in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It’s the world’s largest wind and photovoltaic power project developed and built in a desert. The Kubuqi base project is roughly the size of 20 Central Parks. China will build 450 Gigawatts of solar and wind power in the desert.
China’s solar power reached 610 GW at the end of 2023. 74 GW was activated in November and December. China’s company and government have put $130 billion into solar cell and energy production. This will capture about 80% of the global market. China will have losses and low margins while they generate a solar power glut while capturing market share. Solar module prices dropped 42% in the last year. They are now at $0.15 per watt. This is down to $150 per kilowatt. The US has prices for home installation of $3 per watt which is $3000 per kilowatt. The $0.15 per watt is 60% below the $0.40 per watt for wholesale utility scale US prices.
China will reach over 1 terawatt of solar installed capacity by the end of 2025. This will generate about 1100 TWh/year. China’s total power generation volume was about 9,360 TWh in 2023. China’s electrical power generation and demand will be about 9600-9700 TWh in 2024 and about 10000 TWh in 2025.
An Australian energy project, Uaroo, combined a 3.33GW solar park with a 2.04GW wind farm and a battery with a storage capacity of 9.1GWh. Swedish state-owned utility Vattenfall also aims to address the grid congestion in the Netherlands with its integrated wind, solar, and BESS project. Its €61 million Energypark Haringvliet, which opened in March, has 38MW of solar capacity, 22MW of wind and a 12MWh BESS.
The BESS (Battery electric storage system) sizing for these renewable projects is roughly 2 hours of storage for each megawatt of solar or wind generation.
The Tesla Megapack provides about 3.9 MWh of storage which would match up with 2 MW of solar or wind generation. 1 Terawatt of solar in China would match up to 2 TWh of battery storage for a fully stored energy solution. This would move the generation from say 9AM-11AM to 6pm -8pm. 2 TWH would be 500,000 Tesla Megapacks. It would take 10 Tesla factories at full 40 GWh per production to build this number of megapacks in 5 years. Global Solar would need to continue scaling for 20 years to meet current world electricity demand. World electricity demand would increase 30% by electrifying all cars and trucks. World electricity demand could start doubling every 5-10 years with growing energy demand from AI data centers. The existing solar and wind energy (2TWh) already need about 1,000,000 megapacks of storage. There is some pumped hydro and other storage but almost all of the solar and wind energy has no battery storage to make the energy created more efficient, productive and valuable.
China’s Energy Storage increased from 8.7 GW at the end of 2022 to 31.4 GW at the end of 2023. China has invested $14 billion into mainly lithium ion battery energy storage in 2022 and 2023.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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No, a Terra Watt ain’t that much, in the “big picture”. And yes you need infrastructure to get power however made from where you need it. And China HAS been building infrastructure like mad for over 20 years. Of course the millions who were forcibly displaced by many “big projects”, don’t have a choice. Ever hear of the Three Gorges Dam? The largest dam on Earth? Millions were relocated, and had no choice. Yes, a dictatorship can do wonders when it comes to public works. And the public are not even an afterthought.
For those who think “drill, drill, drill” is our energy future, it ain’t. First, the United States is the largest producer of oil and gas on Earth today. I don’t have any problem with that. But our future are technologies that do not pollute, or screw up our climate by their use. China is moving very quickly in clean, alternative energy. The free world needs to move in this area as well. Quick. I don’t want a dictatorship to be “better” at this then the rest of us. That’s power. Perhaps enough to rule the world. There are subtle ways to “rule others” that are not, so in-your-face, but just as bad.
I applaud China for it’s talent, but I certainly don’t envy it’s people. They don’t have a vote on whatever happens to them. (We still do, but that depends on who we vote for).
OK gang, this is what was the result of what I tried to say. I could make my POV clear because some SOB did not allow to speak my POV on this web site. I will be VERY honest. I DON’T like some idiot SOB who wants to try to try tell me, They, don’t have to listen, or hear, my POV. Know what? I really do believe, everyone person, every individual needs to listen to every other one person on our planet. Know why? Because every person on our world, is at any one moment, is shockingly unique. Think of the power, the potential that gives our world.
But we must understand, that truth happens, one person, one individual, at a time. so lets create a future so much better then our past. We can make our future a wonderful, magical place. If only when we get it through our heads, it’s up to each person, at any one moment, to make a wonderful future happen. This is when anyone, person “gets IT” they create the future, by what we do, everyone does, today. Do your best boys and girls. What ever you do, does matter. It really does. KNOW THIS to be true…Predict the future? Hell, invent it, create it out of whole cloth if you must. It’s so much simpler to predict a future you actually create.
Have fun gang…
Lies, damned lies, and statistics (Samuel Clements)
And … drumroll … how much of that Solar Capacity is actually grid-connected? Read something a couple of months back, that the cells are mounted on hand-welded frames, without rust protection and so are rotting … and are not electrically connected either to each other, or to the grid.
Oh well … just saying.
FOR CHINA, the public PV business is simply a big ol’ sponge to absorb the incredible over-capacity in production that the Chinese government has fostered, through advantageous loans, advantageous grants, and outright international anti-competitive underwriting.
So, 1,000 GW of cells?
Sure! You gotcha!
WHY THE FVCK is China burning so much Coal then?
I mean, aren’t the million-megawatts enough to offset MOST of their CO2 output?
No?
Well, why the F not?
See … that’s the thing. Magnificent advertisements of their prowess very, very, very often overcoats the mendacity of their actual efforts, and actual address of issues.
CHINA is the #1 — by far — emitter of ocean-bound pollutants.
CHINA is the #1 — by way-far — emitter of oceanic microplastics.
They’re the #1 emitter of CO2 worldwide, and have been for over 20 years.
They’re the #1 consumer of heavy crude, which inevitably emits
… zillions of kg of sulfur dioxide emissions
The North Polar region’s atmosphere is dominated by China SO2 all thru Winter
Their conservation of disappearing species … is specious.
Indeed, they’d rather EAT the last Rhinoceros than conserve it.
They’ve lost THOUSANDS of unique species to their “agricultural” methods.
Just saying.
Yet another Rah-Rah-Rah article.
Yes, such a statement is impossible to independently verify. And you wouldn’t dare, if you were Chinese. But they are making great headway. But does that mean they don’t embellish? Oh hell, I think they do. The reason, is to give the rest of the world the fatalistic mind set, “why compete with us?” Know what? I’m a capitalist, and I LOVE competition.
I don’t think many people see clearly what is coming.
The ramp in China is insane.
The ramp in Texas is just as incredible. The far southwest of Texas is about to explode with its 3rd energy boom. (It might be a good time to buy surface rights on scrub land. Learn how to install solar and battery farms. And watch the crypto mining that has already been moving out there.)
What energy boom in Tx?
And I would love it if those good people in Texas knew what the hell they were doing. What their own Republican government did not prevent them from doing. At any point , any people have to ask the right questions. And then it’s the right time, to ask the right questions, How about this as one of a new thought?
OK, how about this? I can make your life so better, you will love it so much, you would not dare question it? And if you do, your ass is mine. And the sorry little truth about that, is what ever I believe, if I make you believe anything at all, makes you my sorry little pet, Yah, it’s sometimes that simple, and so stupid. Deal with it idiot kids… I don’t like to be rude, but sometimes, I need to be blunt…
window cleaner is the future
[ China needs ~2TWh of battery storage *a year* (currently or 2x-4x in preview, what’s comparable to ~50-200 Gigafactories for batteries), or nuclear fusion (with lower solar&wind capacities)? ]
2 TWh is nothing.
What’s needed to effectively integrate 1 TW installed solar is ~5 or so TWh just to shift the peak to where it is actually needed.
But there are rainy days, there are off-seasons. Actual storage requirements to integrate a lot of solar without using non-consumption of fossil fuels as “storage” is obscene. That will obviously never happen, which is why the oil, coal and gas will stay until nuclear can replace it.
I assume you have permission to post this? Your figures seem reasonable but I’d have to check them to see if their valid. I’d be checking that information against information that can not be independently verified. Not easy, but by no means impossible. By the way, ever think of defecting? The US government offers a salary far above that of the governments of most nations on Earth. But it’s the “benefits package” that makes it so sweet. That’s (often) worth more then the salary. But if you chose that path, oh please be careful.
Chinas surveillance state makes Orwell’s 1984 look like being in the middle of the woods, where even the animals don’t notice your there. You’d be “not noticed background noise”. Believe me, all 1billion400million people +/- 100 million people in China, not counting visitors are all noticed, all the time. Yes it’s possible to do this with the right technology, applied in the right way, with no restrictions on it’s use. Love to meet you some day, the thing to remember: Never let your guard down, for a moment.
[ 2023: 217GW of solar, depending on weather, repowering ~222TWh/a, that’s ~2% of current electricity demand (690GW ~750TWh)
2023: wind power generation world ~2300TWh (~7.8% of global electricity 2023 (increase ~206TWh ~10%, cap. installed ~1017GW), ~3.5% 2015), China ~886TWh (2023: capacity ~441GW, ~9.4% of 9360TWh electricity consumption), added ~76GW (~150TWh) 2023, that’s ~1,6% of 9360TWh (460GW ~920TWh) and on that installation rate, that’s ~23yrs (with production capacity increase to double (at least, 4x necessary, what’s solar ~1TW/a and wind ~350GW/a?) of current installation, maybe below 15yrs?, electricity demand increasing ~6.7%/a) with solar&wind ~17% of current electricity demand at most, had been a developing country some years ago.
Maybe there’s ~10-15yrs for full battery capacity storage necessary?
China: primary energy consumption, 2023, ~170EJ ~47400TWh, incr. ~6.9% (~159EJ 2022)
(solar&wind ~1670TWh, ~2023/2024 average per year, 3.5%)
2023:
generation fossil ~17900TWh/a
generation renewables&nuclear ~11570TWh/a
avg. CO2 world ~480g/kWh
avg. CO2 China ~582g/kWh (declining, 2014 ~690g/kWh) ]