Jordan at the Limiting Factor projects magapack energy demand. He does his usual excellent job but he does not factor in increased energy demand from AI data centers. AI data centers could more double the amount of overall world energy needed by 2040. The overall energy demand used in Tesla Master Plan part 3 did not factor in rapid increasing electricity needs for AI.
Jordan assumes Tesla getting 15% or 35% of global market share. Nextbigfuture believes Tesla could get more energy market share by including aspects of the energy substations and grid distribution into the hardware and software. Megapack 3 will be able to connect directly to high energy lines which will speed installation and remove grid bottlenecks. Tesla and XAI will also be making many of the AI data centers. They will be able to provide their own energy and energy storage.
This makes the 6 to 13 megapack factories conservative.
I had a projection of Tesla getting towards 9.5 forty GWh per year megapack factories by 2028.
Jordan is projecting four factories by 2028 in the low case and six factories in his high case by 2028.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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AI centers will double the worlds energy needs!? Theres this horrible future setting of the world being controlled by competing AI brains, and each brain must eat, so sends its minions out to attack the other brains and collect more energy.
But doubling the global energy production by 2040 would imply increasing the electricity production by another 30000 GW / 4000 GW in the world / USA, assuming solar power. And doubling all of the electricity infrastructure. Is that really going to happen in 16 years?