Nextbigfuture has calculated and projected the contribution of Tesla Energy to Tesla financials and approximated share price contribution. I have a video that explains the impact and why it will happen. There is also an overview of how this and the FSD and AI is taking Tesla into more than a car company.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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A little overzealous cheerleading in the here and now, but ultimately it will come to pass. I’ve been under the belief for years that the energy sector will completely outperform and eclipse the automotive sector of Tesla. There’s no comparing the global energy market to making cars. The latter is a corner lemonade stand by comparison.
Thanks, Brian! This is something to consider. With solar panel installations growing rapidly, the demand for Megapacks is ahead of supply for at least another year, maybe two.
The hard part is projecting margins past 2026. Tesla will bring down CAGS substantially when it opens its new lithium refining facility in Corpus Christie at the start of 2025.
The amount of lithium mining from brine (Lithium carbonate) and from spodumine (Lithium hydroxide) has grown by leaps and bounds, and huge new mining operations are just now winding up in the U.S. Additionally, competitors to megapacks are growing at a rapid clip.
All of this means Megapacks will need a differentiator to avoid being driven down to commodity pricing. Teslas access to AI and Software engineers might give it an advantage. Elon has resently spoken about Megapacks being drop, plug, and go. Unlike every other supplier, Tesla is positioning Megapacks to speed up battery farm construction times and reduce costs, as the Megapacks will not require substations to move electricity out of and back into the grid.
This will give Tesla a significant advantage over competitors, even inside China.
Brian, your projection is far too optimistic. The factory in Shanghai is not ready yet, and you are projecting an additional 40 GWh of output in 2025. If we are lucky, the factory can be ready by the end of this year and the ramp would take one year. Ie a contribution of 20 GWh 2025 (making a total of 60 GWh in 2025). And that’s the best case scenario.
And then you have assumed about 8 megapack factories being build and ramped by 2028. Where are the factory starts? Either that or each factory 5x its output. Are we seeing that?
Furthermore, the listing price per 4 MWh is about a million USD this year. Ie the revenue should be much lower than you have assumed. Remember that the rock bottom of the megapack would be the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries, ie about 240 thousand dollars for 4 MWh. The price can fall significantly in the coming years…
Tesla is lagging behind chinese companies in battery tech. We can DIY an energy storage system if we have batteries and inverters. I don’t see Tesla have any real advantages over other companies.
Tesla has Brian 😄😄😄💪💪💪
As the storage industry scales, it will increasingly be a standardized commodity with decreasing differentiation opportunities to drive profits.
Without outsize profits, the contribution to the stock value will be minimal.
They’ll probably ditch the industry and just focus on licensing their autobidder software to commodity battery pack installers.