CallasEV compared a Waymo against Tesla FSD version 12.3.6. Tesla FSD12.3.6 had no disengagements and completed the drive 2 minutes ahead of the Waymo because of superior route planning. The FSD ride and the Waymo rides were both smooth. Tesla FSD can operate across North America and is getting certified in Europe, China, Asia and Australia. Waymo operates in parts of San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix.

Waymo and Tesla FSD Supervised V12.3.6 take on the route from McCormick Railroad Park to the Desert Botanical Gardens in Phoenix, Arizona. Waymo is an autonomous taxi that serves a large portion of Phoenix and surrounding cities.

Here is another video of a Tesla FSD 12.3.6 drive and reaction.

Here is Tesla FSD 12.3.6 driving in Florida. Waymo operates in parts of San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix.

Brian Wang

Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.

Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.

A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.

Sep 2013 2016 “We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years.” No [94]
Oct 2014 2015 “A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel.” AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[95] [96][97]
Oct 2015 2018 “From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner.” No [98]
Dec 2015 2018 “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” No [99]
Jan 2016 2018 “Ultimately you’ll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you’ll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey.” No [100]
Jun 2016 2019 “I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. … We’re less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they’ll want to see billions of miles of data.” No [101]
Oct 2016 Dec 2017 “Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.” No [102][103][104]
Apr 2017 Dec 2017 “November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.” No [105]
May 2017 2019 “I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you’re probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn’t be, certainly.” No [106][107]
Feb 2018 Aug 2018 “[Autopilot is] going to kind of be like [the progression of DeepMind’s AlphaGo] for self-driving. It will feel like well this is a lame driver, lame driver. Like okay, that’s a pretty good driver. Like holy cow, this driver’s good. It’ll be like that. I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside.” No [108]
Nov 2018 2019 “You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a … Like we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on track to do it next year.” No [109]
Feb 2019 Dec 2019 “I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark.” No [110]
Apr 2019 2020 “I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere.” “From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road.” No [111]
Apr 2020 2020 “[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.” No [112][113]
Jul 2020 Dec 2020 “I’m extremely confident that level five – or essentially complete autonomy – will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I feel like we are very close. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there’s the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.” No [114][115]
Jan 2021 Dec 2021 “And it’s now actually more — it’s more common than not for the car to have no interventions, even on a complex drive. So — and this is — basically I’m highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. This is a very big deal.” No [116]
Apr 2022 Dec 2022 “The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year.” No [117]
Aug 2022 Dec 2022 “The two technologies I am focused on, trying to ideally get done before the end of the year, are getting our Starship into orbit … and then having Tesla cars to be able to do self-driving. … Have self-driving in wide release at least in the U.S., and … potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval.” FSD Beta wide release Nov 2022 [118]
May 2023 Dec 2023 “I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year. … Well, we’re now at the point where the car can drive on highways and in cities with and where a human dimension is extremely rare. So I mean, just – I was able to drive for several days, just dropping a navigation pin in random locations in the Greater Austin area with no interventions. And the same in San Francisco, which is a very difficult place to drive.” No [119]
Jul 2023 Dec 2023 “People have sort of made fun of me and perhaps quite fairly have made fun of me, my predictions about achieving full self-driving have been optimistic in the past … I’m the boy who cried FSD, but I think we’ll be better than human by the end of this year. I’ve been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time.” No [120]
Jan 2024 Dec 2024 “You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. […] we’ve had some tentative conversations, but I think they don’t believe it’s real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year.” TBD [121]

3 thoughts on “Tesla FSD 12.3.6 Versus Waymo”

MM

May 20, 2024 at 11:45 am

I think that we all can agree that we won’t see any true autopilot from Tesla to the end of this year or the next one.
- 473
  
  May 21, 2024 at 4:39 am
  
  Reply to MM
  QUOTE I think that we all can agree that we won’t see any true autopilot from Tesla to the end of this year or the next one. UNQUOTE
  Well you think wrong then don`t you `we` don`t all agree with such a 100% sure statement .. I can see Musk has over estimated, often called `The boy who calls wolf` for wolf read FSD ,see thing with that saying is a lot of people get the saying stuff over and over and that thing does not happen, but they miss or forget that in end the the wolves do appear.
  
  Here ignore Musk but look at exponential (at least 10x per year) improvements in AI and the amount of raw Compute power Tesla has today, they could (not 100% will ) make more progress in 6 months than the last 5 years, saying it wont be here by end 2025 is a guess maybe you are right BUT also maybe wrong. Agreeing with such a bold statement is just foolish, as to be honest is making it.
MM

May 20, 2024 at 5:36 am

Sep 2013 2016 “We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years.” No [94]
Oct 2014 2015 “A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel.” AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[95] [96][97]
Oct 2015 2018 “From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner.” No [98]
Dec 2015 2018 “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” No [99]
Jan 2016 2018 “Ultimately you’ll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you’ll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey.” No [100]
Jun 2016 2019 “I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. … We’re less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they’ll want to see billions of miles of data.” No [101]
Oct 2016 Dec 2017 “Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.” No [102][103][104]
Apr 2017 Dec 2017 “November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.” No [105]
May 2017 2019 “I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you’re probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn’t be, certainly.” No [106][107]
Feb 2018 Aug 2018 “[Autopilot is] going to kind of be like [the progression of DeepMind’s AlphaGo] for self-driving. It will feel like well this is a lame driver, lame driver. Like okay, that’s a pretty good driver. Like holy cow, this driver’s good. It’ll be like that. I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside.” No [108]
Nov 2018 2019 “You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a … Like we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on track to do it next year.” No [109]
Feb 2019 Dec 2019 “I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark.” No [110]
Apr 2019 2020 “I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere.” “From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road.” No [111]
Apr 2020 2020 “[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.” No [112][113]
Jul 2020 Dec 2020 “I’m extremely confident that level five – or essentially complete autonomy – will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I feel like we are very close. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there’s the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.” No [114][115]
Jan 2021 Dec 2021 “And it’s now actually more — it’s more common than not for the car to have no interventions, even on a complex drive. So — and this is — basically I’m highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. This is a very big deal.” No [116]
Apr 2022 Dec 2022 “The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year.” No [117]
Aug 2022 Dec 2022 “The two technologies I am focused on, trying to ideally get done before the end of the year, are getting our Starship into orbit … and then having Tesla cars to be able to do self-driving. … Have self-driving in wide release at least in the U.S., and … potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval.” FSD Beta wide release Nov 2022 [118]
May 2023 Dec 2023 “I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year. … Well, we’re now at the point where the car can drive on highways and in cities with and where a human dimension is extremely rare. So I mean, just – I was able to drive for several days, just dropping a navigation pin in random locations in the Greater Austin area with no interventions. And the same in San Francisco, which is a very difficult place to drive.” No [119]
Jul 2023 Dec 2023 “People have sort of made fun of me and perhaps quite fairly have made fun of me, my predictions about achieving full self-driving have been optimistic in the past … I’m the boy who cried FSD, but I think we’ll be better than human by the end of this year. I’ve been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time.” No [120]
Jan 2024 Dec 2024 “You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. […] we’ve had some tentative conversations, but I think they don’t believe it’s real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year.” TBD [121]

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