2024 Tesla accomplishments highlights two Optimus bots have started working in the factory.
The list of 2024 Tesla achievements:
– FSD Supervised using end-to-end neural networks rolls out to customers who have purchased or are subscribed to FSD in the US & Canada
– Upgraded Model 3 deliveries start in North America
– Hit 600k Powerwalls installed globally
– Model Y achieves highest possible safety rating by IIHS
– Produced our 6 millionth vehicle
– Hit >1 billion miles driven on FSD
– Cybertruck production hits 1k/week builds
– 4680 ramp continues successfully
– Developed 3 major design revisions of Optimus & 4 revisions of the hand in the last two years, with Optimus autonomously navigating daily in our office & labs
– Deployed two Optimus bots performing tasks in the factory autonomously
(and it’s only June…) 🙂
Rundown of what we have achieved since 2018 – under @elonmusk's leadership
–
2018
– Hit 5k Model 3/week
– Model 3 becomes best-selling EV in the US
– Giga Nevada reached annual battery production rate of 20 GWh
– Launched Navigate on Autopilot
– Model 3 becomes the best-selling…— Tesla (@Tesla) June 11, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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I’m surprised no one sees the real, stupendous cash flow monster. Nursing home care.
“…About 1,290,000 Americans currently reside in nursing homes, according to the 2020 U.S. Census. That number is expected to nearly double by 2050.
Over 15,600 nursing home facilities are in operation, 69% of which are for-profit.
The average monthly cost of nursing home care in 2021 was $8,910 per month…”
https://www.aplaceformom.com/senior-living-data/articles/nursing-home-statistics
$11,493,900,000 a month, $65,410,740,000 a year, $106,920 per person a year.
“…By 2060, 155 million Europeans
— 30% of the total population —
will be aged 65 or older…”
“…Persons 65 or older REQUIRING ASSISTANCE
WITH ADLS 44.4M…double today” [Activities of Daily Living (ADLs)]
So 22.2 million currently.
https://globalcoalitiononaging.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/RHBC_Report_DIGITAL.pdf?ref=hir.harvard.edu
The link above suggest assisted home care from family to lower cost.
I suspect strongly that a Tesla robot combined with access to Tesla taxi service could dramatically cut cost AND make Tesla a huge whooping pile of money.
Most of what the robot would have to do is help move people around, wash, go to the toilet. I do not think with internet linkage to larger AI’s, that it would not be impossible for it to cook.
The cost to own a 2022 Model 3 Sedan Long Range 4dr Sedan AWD is $8,451 per year
https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2022/cost-to-own/
I don’t think it would be a stretch to say you could make and keep a Tesla robot for twice that, $16,902. The real cost would be much, much lower because it requires so much less in material cost.
$25,353 for Tesla robot and a Tesla model 3 (yes it’s more likely they will use distributed taxis but just to get a number). Double that $50,706 or triple $76,059, and you still come way under the cost of nursing homes. The robot could be far more attentive and provide someone (or something) to talk to, and the taxi service could shuttle the elderly all over to make their quality of life much better.
At double, a profit of $37,865,370,000 a year just for the US. Add an equal number in Europe and you get $75,730,740,000. And this is all profit. The numbers would actually be much higher as I’m using full retail price. So the government saves a vast amount of money, people get individualized care and are allowed to stay in their homes.
And the number I quoted for a Tesla robot is tremendously inflated. I think I read the present processor in a Model 3 is $35. Let’s say you add ten of these for more power. $350. Maybe $600 for all wiring, other semiconductors and power supply. 2,500W/h per day for batteries. At $132/kWh we have $330. Maybe $120 of plastic and aluminum. Comes to $1,400. You could surely build one for even less than this.
I wonder if this is not Musk long term plan. He never talked about Starlink, it was always, Mars, Mars, Mars, but as soon as he had the capability, he went full throttle Starlink. I think his robot plan is much the same. As soon as he saw he was close to the software stack and manufacturing capability needed, it’s now all, robot, robot.
The only question is why governments are not pouring tens or even hundreds of billions into finding ways to make this happen.
How I calculated the battery needs. Likely inflated, but should withstand worst case scenario. Maybe not perfect but something to work with.
“…Normal human metabolism produces heat at a basal metabolic rate of around 80 watts…” (Note: Heat not work.)
“…Over an 8-hour work shift, an average, healthy, well-fed and motivated manual laborer may sustain an output of around 75 watts of power….”
“…During a bicycle race, an elite cyclist can produce close to 400 watts of mechanical power over an hour and in short bursts over double that—1000 to 1100 watts…. An adult of good fitness is more likely to average between 50 and 150 watts for an hour of vigorous exercise. Athlete human performance peak power, but only for seconds, 2,000Watts…”
For reference a good horse working at a good constant rate works at 746 Watts.
Let’s say you need 400 watts for 2 hours a day then normal moving about at 100 Watts a hour with 7 hours for recharge at zero watts,
We need 2 x 400W/h + 17 x 100W/h = 800w/h + 1,700W/h = 2,500W/h per day
You mean they haven’t killed anyone yet, or broken anything REALLLY expensive? We would think in any company, if that happened, we all would have heard about that by now. But in an Elon Musk company, perhaps all we could hear is a collective Mooooooo…..
Is EVs have hit a plateau of expectation and sales are flat, what to stop Tesla from spinning its AI robots off into a completely new company?
You really do not understand Tesla AI.
The AI in the EV and the Bot are the exact same brain.
A Tesla EV is a robot with wheels you ride in.
Tesla was, is, and will remain a robotics company.
There is no spin off of robots because that IS what Tesla is.
Tesla power is just an offshoot of the battery systems used in the Bots/EVs.
Yep. Tesla can scale humanoid bots because the core systems in them are already developed, trained, mass produced by the millions – for Tesla vehicles. The inference compute hardware and neural network training just piggyback on existing Tesla investment for vehicle robotics. Tesla also provides the internal customer for thousands of humanoid bots to be tested/trained/developed in it’s own and supplier operations.
Good, thoughtful answers. Thank you.
For in street movement and navigation, sure.
For in-home usage, it requires its own training data.
It must react differently to an environment without maps, where it has to map, recognize and use stairs, a stove, a sink, a dish washer, a fridge etc.
The AI methods might be leveraged, but the training data is pending to be built.
However they know that such data has a snowball effect: the more the bots are used, the more data for training and the more applications the bots can do, getting ever more data.