Tesla Down After Earnings Call As Positive Energy and AI Guidance Was Missed

Tesla missed slightly on earnings per share. Financials improved but not as much as hoped. EPS was (non-GAAP) was 52 cents per share.

There was not positive new guidance on car volumes. This is causing the shares to trade down. The restructuring charges for the layoffs were about $280 million more than expected at $622 million instead of the expectations of about $350 million.
The energy revenue was only just over $3 billion. This was about $400-500 million less than I was expecting. The lower priced units came through faster OR the revenue recognition on units was more delayed. The numbers would have been worse without a very large regulatory tax credit revenue at $890 million versus $442 million. I think the large regulatory tax credit could repeat as the other car makers delayed their electric vehicle plans. However, Wall Street does not like regulatory credit revenue as ultimately those will go away.

The robotaxi day is now October 10, 2024. There will be multiple products shown on robotaxi day.

There was positive news on Energy as the Shanghai megapack factory could be double or triple the production capacity of the first factory in Lathrop, California.

The Megapacks are differentiated in the market with superior software.

The global grid and powerplants can supply two to three times as much power as they do today but would require massive amounts of energy storage to enable powerplants to operate all out all the time.

Building new power plants takes a long time. Scaling the world to double the electricity production by 2040 to meet the demand of massive AI data centers and electrification of transportation would need to rely on millions of megapacks. Each terawatt of powerplant could need about 1 to 3 million megapacks.

This means that Tesla megapack growth potential is a hundred times more than what most analysts have forecast.

On the AI side, Tesla indicates that the Dojo AI training will become competitive with Nvidia chips. This is a change from prior quarters.

Tesla indicated they will have multiple thousands of Teslabots working in Tesla factories in 2025. Tesla will go into volume production on Teslabot (from Austin) in late 2025 and they will immediately sell high volume production Teslabots to those outside of Tesla.

Tesla will apply for robotaxi authorizations in all major regions and countries by the end of the year.

Tesla will only license FSD/robotaxi if there is an OEM with 1 million cars per year volume.

7 thoughts on “Tesla Down After Earnings Call As Positive Energy and AI Guidance Was Missed”

  1. Brian put his hat in the ring at 69c per share. I respect that.

    Maybe this explains why Musk has backed out of his $45mil a month to Trump…

    Reply
    • There’s no actual evidence he got into it in the first place. It was just an anonymously sourced report in WSJ, so far as I can tell.

      If you’ve got ANYTHING that actually came from Musk originally saying he was going to do it, I’d be interested to see it.

      Reply
      • This an odd one. Trump himself repeated it at a rally a couple of days ago.

        “I read he gives me $45million a month. I talked to him a while ago, and he didn’t even mention it. Other guys give you two dollars and you got to take them to lunch.”

        Though Musk now seems to be denying it in the last 24 hours (Or its much smaller amounts anyway). Guess its my bad for taking Trumps words as fact.

        Reply
        • Trump’s not particularly lying there. He says he read it; The WSJ DID report that, in an anonymously sourced story, “according to people familiar with the matter.”, that’s probably WHERE he read it. He goes on to note that Musk said nothing to him about it.

          So Musk’s denial doesn’t contradict anything Trump said.

          I’m personally amazed at how fast and wide that rumor spread, on such a flimsy basis. Isn’t it about time people start ignoring anonymously sourced stories? They’re about as reliable as a Magic 8 Ball.

          Reply
  2. I have strong faith in FSD, Optimus robots, and Megapacks.

    I know people are disappointed tonight, but Tesla has been investing $billions and $billions in new factories for new products and expanding factories. I watch what’s coming, and I understand the future.

    Say it with me: FSD, Robotaxis, Optimus, and Megapacks.

    Reply
    • yup.
      While megapacks are big business, and robotaxi’s will be great. It doesn’t excite the little school girl in me that humanoid robots do. I would be putting half of all R&D into the bot. It’s just a few years away from being the largest money printer the world has ever seen.

      Reply
      • showing robotaxi prototype won’t mean much for me and for a stock. It will only be exciting when Tesla will announce mass production and they will start appearing on the streets in large numbers.

        Reply

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