Elon Musk said Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026.
This should mean hundreds and perhaps thousands of Teslabots in Tesla factories next year.
There are handful Teslabots in use in Tesla factories now.
There should then be hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions of Teslabots in Tesla factories in 2026 along with hundreds of thousands and millions being sold in 2026 and 2027.
Tesla Shanghai reported that as of this month:
• Four workshops are connected and manufactured parts can be transferred within the workshop.
• Fully automated production has been achieved by 95%, and the automation rate of welding workshops is around 100%.
Tesla needs thousands of Teslabots at each factory to automate the last 5% of production.
Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 22, 2024
$TSLA 🇨🇳
Recently, reporters visited Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory and provided the following information.• Giga Shanghai is in full operation.
• Save 100m of production line through the use of vertical lifts.
• Four workshops are connected and manufactured parts can be… pic.twitter.com/zDeygrzHmJ— Tsla Chan (@Tslachan) July 17, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Oh I doubt it. Let me give you my perception of “the future”. People IMO, have a tendency to overestimate not just technological change, but it’s sociological impact in the short term. Go back say 40 years. Did people anticipate public pay phones would not exist? (there are still a few, but you have to hunt for them). Did people anticipate not just phones on their person, but computers that could so much more then just make a phone call? Doubtful. In the famous 1980’s movie “Bladerunner”, by 2019, we had flying cars, megastructures, and genetically engineered people. Both “supermen”, and “toys”. We have an understandable habit of thinking of the future as an extension of what we understand now. It’s never that simple.
Did we anticipate our today would be based on computer and communications technology? Sorry, no flying cars. (I’d be delighted if our highways moved cars more effectively) Point is, in 40 years the future became now based on what no one (to my knowledge) anticipated. Hey, future happens. In the medium term it’s very hard to predict. In the long term? Oh good Lord… Anyway, I’ve always said the best way to predict the future, is to invent it, to create it. And that always begins, right NOW.
millions? no
I would wager, end of 2026, Tesla will have sold a TOTAL of 150,000 bots. But probably around 1 mill a year later.
Wanna bet? My money is on <20 bots in 2024 and <100 2025. And in 2026 <1000.
Elon is always overly optimistic….
There is a belief that China stole manufacturing jobs.
In reality, most of those jobs don’t exist anymore because of automation.
General purpose robots will destroy more of these jobs. With less of a labor cost consideration, more factories will relocate – maybe mostly to areas with low cost energy and good transportation access.
Yes, the demographic bonus and the cheap manual labor would cease being considerations at the moment of planning where to invest.
It will be a great return of factories and manufacturing to the developed world. But only wherever AI regulation and energy security allow it. A lot of it will be in places where nuclear energy isn’t banned.
Why people use words like superintelligence to describe AGI ? AGI is not superintelligence, it is human intelligence. Superintelligence AGI is just nonsense. And I won’t comment on the unrealistic timelines.
But he keeps alienating his customers.
The Overton windows is shifting.
That’s why he bought Twitter. Because he noticed the mainstream was going too much towards the left, degrowth and anti-capitalism, and had to cut it short before they went after him and the accelerationist Silicon Valley types.
He basically accepted to become an Archetype of Evil of the left for the sake of the future.
Spending billions to buy Twitter for political purpose show how childish he is.
That your opinion, not mine.
How do you see it shifting? Can you elaborate?
Companies increasingly dropping DEI and ESG for example.
What, because of Obamacare?
Not really. He was captured by the quasi-religious Right Wing MAGA cult largely because his son Xavier declared as trans and also rejected him for being rich. His son attended a school Musk himself created hiring the “best” teachers which in SoCal implied very Left Wing too. He felt blindsided by this and it started the process of his drifting into the embrace of the Cult that would protect him and humanity from “the woke mind virus”. That is just as delusional as it sounds. Being a genius at other things does not make people immune to delusional beliefs and cults.