Investors are not properly calculating the profits from increased Tesla Cybertruck sales in 2025. Tesla will be making 200,000 to 300,000 Cybertrucks in 2025 and they will each sell for twice as much as a model Y. They will have three times the profit at $24000 vs $8000 for a model Y.
Megapack Energy profits have also gone next level with the this quarters increase which will be sustained and grow in 2025.
Tripling expected profits would justify a $1000 price target in 2025.
Main stream analyst, Gary Black is projecting 1.7 million Tesla cars delivered in 2024 and 2.2 million Tesla cars in 2025. He has 8.4 billion in profit in 2024 and $12 billion in 2025.
The Tesla Cybertruck should be at a production rate of 2500 per week in Q4 of this year and 5000 per week in 2025.
The Cybertruck costs $100,000 to 120,000 now and will cost $80,000 to $100,000 next year. This is over double the price of model Y and is well above the average selling price used by Gary Black. If Gary was using a proper selling price analysis and 250,000 Cybertruck, Model S and Model X were sold then it would increase the ASP to about $45k-48K.
250,000 Cybertruck would add $6 billion in profit.
The Megapack Energy (and powerwall and solar) has increased to 9.4 GWH per quarter. This is an added $1 billion in profit per quarter this year and will be $2 billion per quarter next year. The $14 billion increase in profit is over double the $12 billion that Gary has for his just regular cars projection.
FSD sales will increase and I project that Robotaxi companies in China will choose to stock up fleets of Tesla for wide scale tests. This can add $18 billion in profit next year.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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I wonder if Elons support for Trump will affect sales.
Its his money to do with what he pleases, but knowing that a fraction of the money you spend goes to a certain someone might rub people the wrong way.
411 million shares x 0,45 usd/share / 400.000 cars/quarter = 462 usd pr car.
So if he spends 120 million on trump out of his 250 billion thats 0,05% of his wealth, or 22 cents pr car.
I wonder what the export demand is for Cybertruck? My X(twitter) feed is full of people in Europe and Asia who talk about the CT and ask when it will be available there. I know it’s anecdotal, but it does have some buzz.
Oh, and also this headline from a few days ago:
https://electrek.co/2024/07/18/tesla-secures-absurdly-large-multi-billion-megapack-contract/
Apparently it’s illegal in Europe, unless your car is registered in usa.
I did not know that.
Thanks, Jonathan.
It will never come to Denmark, and I believe the rest of europe have the same rules.
Its total weight 5000 kg, max on a normal license is 3600 kg
At that weight the maximum speed is 80 km/h
It has to be “pedestrian friendly” so no sharp angles allowed.
Its empty weight is 3101 kg, which means you cant register it as a commercial car, because the load capacity is too small.
You might be able to register it as a commercial truck, but that means you are not allowed to use it for anything private.
Too big for most parking lots.
https://bilmagasinet.dk/tesla/tesla-cybertruck
That is good information. Thank you for taking the time to explain it.
You have made me curious about the rules for Southern and Eastern Europe. The wealthiest countries are in the North, and would have been the obvious market for a $100,000 truck. But there are still many wealthy people in Southern and Eastern Europe who would love to be the center of attention.