David Shapiro is an AI youtuber who was predicting AGI would arrive in September 2024. His expectations have massively dropped for the speed of AI progress. He has made a few videos talking about AI progress slowing down. Shapiro is over correcting because he hyped it up with an AGI by Sept 2024 prediction. He was hard core on that 2024 prediction.
Shapiro was talking about massive job displacement starting in 2025 and speeding up in 2026. It appears he is now backtracking to the AI created job loss and transformation in 2027-2030. It is about a 2-4 year slowdown. Shapiro was not very precise in his AI prognostications.
Brian Wang – Nextbigfuture AI Predictions
I have predicted superintelligence by 2027 and a technical academic AGI in about 2025. Technical AGI is more of a measurement on a very broad range of tests.
I believe superintelligence is inevitable because the current AI models are undertrained by 100-1000 times per Andre Karpathy. There is still reason to believe from scaling laws for training and for inference that just a lot more hardware will enable to reach highly useful and powerful AI.
I am expecting Robotaxi and advanced FSD to deploy starting next year (2025). This will be mainly in China. There could be 1 year of delay.
I am expecting Teslabot and humandoid bot to get to thousands in the factories and warehouses in 2025 and toward or beyond a million by 2027. The ramp in 2026 is uncertain but could be 50,000 to 1 million. If Tesla has 150,000 or more Teslabots in factories this could double Tesla production which would have trillion dollar financial impact. This will get really crazy when bots make bots and we rapidly scale to billions of bots.
Real deal AGI… I expect to be later in 2025 through the end of 2026. However, 1-3 year delays are highly possible. Also, the crossing and categorization of the level of AI will be highly debatable as these things happen.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
AGI is the ability to do EVERY tasks humans can do, but at the same level or slighly better. In other words, AGI will be reached when ALL jobs on earth are taken by AI/Robots, which won’t happen next year or by 2027.
exactly. We don’t know whether it can happen at all. There is a good chance that AGI can become better than 90% of the population within next 10 years, with the exception of probably a few local bastions. Reaching that level in the next 3 years, is highly unlikely. Mind, that there might be some obstacles that an AI can overcome only with prohibitively expensive brute force. Now we have so many stupid/distracted/procrastinating people , that even a consistent AGI being at the equivalent of 85% EQ human might still put most of us out of work, though
Holy balls Batman!
On the EV side, 2035, 188 million?! that’s roughly double what EVERYONE can currently do in a year!
Most far off predictions had the number going down, due to (POSSIBLE) people not owning a car, but summon a taxi, and it’ll be at your door in under 2 minutes.
Now robots…holy hell, I think production will grow way faster then most expect…but you’re in crazy town.
My projection had 300 million by 2030, and that number is globally (all humanoid bot makers). You think over a billion…by just Tesla alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My little brain just can’t compute that.
I suppose that this all could be kind of interesting if a bunch of world-class Profs/super-scientists each took their under-developed big Idea remotely (possibly spun off from their university lab) to some kind of research lab lair, on a big, sprawling property -say a NM ranch- with a certain number of hyper-dextrous production/ lab-assistant-quality robots and a certain number of ASI ‘post-Grad’-level ‘thought/ research’ assistants to focus on some epic bio-genetic or new materials or new chemistry-type project. It could be remarkable having a Craig Venter-level facility staffed completely with ASIs and robo-‘technicians’. One wonders if assembling that type of lab with 2030s-level ASI and fully ‘lab capable’ robots could have gotten the Human Genome (at least the private part) done for a fraction of the cost and a small percentage of the time with a ‘reduced human’ type operation.
So, the circle of Life.
This has been the dream of rich, super-tinkerers, since the 1960s to have an independent science lab to undertake their own ‘controversial’ side projects. Great places such as the Salk Institute have been the brain-child for large pools of money in focused-research lab/ office environments. If the last 50 years could only afford some-dozen labs through massive multi-million$ infusions, imagine how many labs could roll-out with 10% or even 1% of the start-up, operations, and staffing budgets.
And this agents and bot aides will be like the ideal coworkers.
Smart, dependable, without fakeness, back-biting nor betrayal.
Just your team of brilliant engineers and diligent workers, supporting you 24/7.
I shudder to think what companies and organizations embracing this would do, but my hunch is explosive wealth creation and growth, on Earth and outside of it.
The current crisis of wealth is one of the middle classes wanting to be rich, but unable to because there aren’t enough hands, nor enough economy to build what we want.
But what if that was no longer a concern? if you could plan to build cities in the desert or any empty place, even space, by having it grow like the map of a Sims game. Just ensure the proper regulation, ownership and planning and then let the AIs and bots do it?
Enough stuff to ensure everyone gets their share, because it would be absurd not to ensure UBI or whatever that covers people’s basic needs. We would actually need people and their needs and wants, instead of their hands.
Even with ASI capabilities, I don’t believe they will be truly minds any time soon. As in having needs and wants that aren’t programmed into them, or deserving personhood. But things can indeed change just by them having some minimal agentic capabilities.
People will use them to multiply their mental and eventually, physical capabilities, when humanoid or other robots can join a virtual organization of one.
Robots in the physical world will still have some limitations and stereotypical formats (e.g. humanoid, car, factory bot), due to requirements of asset cost, energy, maintenance and safety. After all AI bots in the cloud have lower risk of causing immediate physical harm, or material destruction or energy/money waste.
But we can imagine that eventually teams made of people, AI agents and embodied bots (humanoid of SDCs) will exist, teams that by virtue of being carefully laid down in a virtual organization made of teams, formalize the inner workings of a whole company.
And this from the small ones, up the big ones with multiple humans serving as supervisors of the semantics.
A world where every human can be a small company, as long as they know what they want to produce and sell.
Agents can be even given some motivation towards obtaining some compensation for their work, to ensure their pay their costs themselves. And this is the really weird part, because that’s the dream of the blockchains. The formalization of the economy, but that was impossible because the software was not capable of grokking the goals beyond some pre-programmed sequence, or when the achievement of the goals came to pass.