David Shapiro is an AI youtuber who was predicting AGI would arrive in September 2024. His expectations have massively dropped for the speed of AI progress. He has made a few videos talking about AI progress slowing down. Shapiro is over correcting because he hyped it up with an AGI by Sept 2024 prediction. He …
Bill Gates talks about the inevitability that AI will become more intelligent than humans. Bill Gates has insider access and insight into what OpenAI and Microsoft are doing in AI. He believes the next level is to get to human-like metacognition. We need to go beyond the more trivial reasoning of LLM today. Metacognition is …
Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, says humanoid robots will become as common as cars and there will be significant breakthroughs in robotics in the next 2-3 years. This would be about 2 billion humanoid robots. Elon Musk said he thinks there will be ten times as many humanoid robots in the future. This would be 20 …
TeslaFSDTracker provides crowdsourced data about Tesla FSD. They are showing Tesla FSD 12.3.6 users reporting 399 miles between disengagements in City driving. This is over three times more distance than the best version of Tesla FSD 11.X. UPDATE: Elon Musk posted to X on May 8 that FSD 12.4 should start rolling out next week. …
Brian Wang and Randy Kirk recorded this discussion four days before the Q1 earnings call on Tuesday April 23. We predicted several aspects of the earnings call but also post earnings developments. This was recorded at the same time as the reaction video to the insightful BG2 Pod that Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley made. …
Will AI surpass human intelligence to reach AGI (artificial general intelligence) ? I discuss the rapid advancements in AI, tackle whether you should fear it, and discuss its impact on our jobs and the world. Brian WangBrian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His …
The All in Podcast had a discussion and debate about the AI decade. They compare the current AI infrastructure boom with the internet boom. The current situation is less of a bubble because Nvidia is not getting that large a multiple off its real earnings. They are certain that the current build out phase will …
In 2018, Nextbigfuture predicted that Canada would have 40 million people in 2023. Statistics Canada determined that Canada had 40 million people on June 16, 2023. I correctly made this prediction 6 years before it happened. The UN population “actual” numbers are off by 5% for Canada. The UN predictions are off by 20% or …
2024 and every year going forward will have more and better AI. This intelligence explosion is attracting funding and resources exponentially and it revenue will go exponential. AI expert, Dr Alan Thompson, expects OpenAI to release GPT 4.5 in days and it will exceed human experts in most intelligence tests. A survey of thousands of …
I made 197 correct resolved public predictions in a row on Metaculus. Everything that I predicted and resolved over the last 78 days was correct. A prediction could have been made over the last year or longer but the answer was determined so that the prediction became true or false. This compares to the Metaculus …
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough. In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for Baseline accuracy. In 2023, I am ranking 25th out of a likely …